India is in the middle of a strategic balancing act between Washington and Moscow
NEW DELHI — The four-day war began before breakfast. On a pale May morning, Indian Air Force fighters rose from bases in Punjab and Jammu; across the line, Pakistani pilots climbed to meet them. By nightfall, both capitals were tallying victories and denying losses. It was not a battle of aerobatics so much as a duel of radars, data links and long-range missiles — a contest shaped by who saw first and who shot first.
That short clash forced an old question to the top of New Delhi’s inbox: what should India fly next, and from whom? The choice sits inside a larger balancing act — between Washington and Moscow, between imported prowess and sovereign control — all under the shadow of Ukraine and the promise of India’s own fifth-generation project.
IAF Rafale arriving at Ambala, during the first induction. Photo via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
India’s fleet tells the story. French Rafales, Russian-derived Su-30MKIs and indigenous Tejas fighters share runways but not always code. Mission computers, waveforms and encryption standards are split by origin. Pilots fly excellent jets; the network tying them together is less than the sum of its parts.
Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Indian Air Force. Public domain (USAF photo).
HAL Tejas, India’s indigenous light combat aircraft. Photo: Deb Rana (CC BY-SA 4.0).
The Fog of Four Days
The May exchange was fought mostly beyond visual range. Missiles lofted from standoff distances, cued by ground radars, AWACS and fighters acting as sensor nodes. Pakistan’s narrative emphasized Chinese PL-15 missiles and J-10C tactics. India highlighted its air defenses and long-range detection. Independent verification remains thin; recycled imagery clouded parts of the record. But the operational lessons are hard to miss: sensing, fusing and firing at range now define the neighborhood’s air war.
Between Washington and Moscow
The United States offers the F-35, the benchmark for sensor fusion and networking — with conditions. Joining the program can mean tight end-use limits and dependence on a U.S. sustainment cloud. Technically dazzling, strategically constraining.
F-35A Lightning II. Public domain (U.S. Air Force).
Moscow’s counter-offer centers on the Su-57: a fifth-generation design pitched with co-production and technology transfer. On paper it is cheaper and more open; in practice it faces questions — sanctions, shallow production and limited combat use. The attraction is sovereignty; the risk is schedule and depth of ecosystem.
Sukhoi Su-57 during a display at Kubinka. Photo: Andrei Shmatko (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Air Defense as a Shooter
The boundary between fighters and ground air defense has blurred. India’s S-400 batteries complicate planning for any opponent, especially when they feed tracks into a common picture. The value is less in a single “silver bullet” and more in the way sensors cooperate across domains.
S-400 5P85T2 launcher. Photo: Boevaya mashina (CC BY-SA 3.0).
What to Buy First
Brains before airframes. Fund a crash program for sovereign sensor fusion — Indian data links, mission computers and EW libraries that stitch Rafale, Su-30MKI and Tejas into one kill chain. Match it with missile depth (Meteor now; Astra Mk-II/III in numbers), and doctrine that treats air defense as part of air superiority, not its afterthought.
Then choose the bridge — more Rafales with deep systems upgrades, a Su-30MKI “super-standard,” or a limited Su-57 tranche — not because brochures sparkle, but because the choice supports common weapons and common data while AMCA matures.
In a region where alignment is read from the flight line, India’s next jet will say as much about sovereignty as it does about speed. The decision is technical; the message will be unmistakable.
