Trump drives India into the arms of China
By Jaffa Levy
Tianjin, August 31, 2025 — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged on Sunday to improve relations during their first face-to-face meeting in seven years, held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The talks come just days after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping 50 percent tariffs on Indian exports, a move that has strained U.S.–India ties and provoked widespread condemnation in New Delhi.
Modi told Xi that India remained committed to advancing ties with China on the basis of “mutual trust, respect and sensitivity.” The two leaders agreed to restart direct flights, reopen the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage route, and strengthen border management mechanisms to prevent fresh clashes along the Line of Actual Control. Xi described the two nations as “partners, not rivals,” invoking the image of the “dragon and elephant” moving forward together.
A tariff shock
The meeting comes against the backdrop of Trump’s punitive tariff decision, which analysts estimate could affect two-thirds of India’s exports to the United States, striking hardest at labor-intensive industries such as textiles, gems, jewelry and seafood. Economists warn the tariffs could cost India between $25 and $55 billion annually and shave nearly a percentage point off GDP growth.
Indian media outlets have denounced the move as a “strategic shock,” warning of potential job losses in hubs from Kolkata’s garment workshops to Rampur’s mentha oil industry, where orders have already been cancelled. The Times of India called the policy “economic aggression,” while influential figures like yoga guru Baba Ramdev urged a boycott of American brands, accusing Washington of “bullying a sovereign nation.”
Diplomatic fallout
Until recently, Modi cultivated a close personal relationship with Trump, with both leaders speaking of a “natural alliance.” But that partnership has frayed. Opposition politicians in India have seized on the tariff dispute, pressing Modi to show he can defend India’s economic interests.
In Tianjin, Modi appeared to signal a recalibration. By stressing “strategic autonomy” and reaffirming dialogue with China, India underscored its intent to pursue independent policy rather than align itself with Washington’s economic coercion.
A shifting balance
For Beijing, the timing offered an opening. Xi’s warm tone contrasted sharply with Washington’s punitive measures, positioning China as a pragmatic partner even amid unresolved border disputes.
Analysts say the optics of the Modi–Xi meeting underscore a new reality: U.S. economic pressure has inadvertently nudged India closer to its traditional rival. “Trump has done what Beijing alone could not — driven India into China’s arms,” said one New Delhi–based strategist.
