Iran’s Su-35 Gamble: From MiG-29 Lifeline to High-Value Bet on Russian Arms
by Jaffa Levy
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Iran’s long delayed quest for modern airpower appears to be moving from rumor to reality. Leaked Russian export tables, hurried MiG 29 transfers, and visible industrial activity in Iran all point to a high stakes rearmament drive that could permanently redraw the balance of power over the Persian Gulf. But beneath the headlines, the details reveal a bargain fraught with dependency, mistrust, and risk.
The documents that set the story alight surfaced not in Moscow or Tehran, but on Telegram. In early October, a hacker collective calling itself Black Mirror posted what it said were export records from the Russian state concern KRET, a division of Rostec responsible for avionics and electronic warfare systems. The tables listed a foreign customer, coded but easily identified as Iran, ordering forty eight Su 35 multirole fighters valued at roughly six billion euros.
The schedule inside those files is revealing. The first shipments, heads up displays, infrared sights, and Khibiny class electronic warfare pods, were marked for 2024 to 2026. The aircraft themselves are logged for 2026 to 2028. In defense procurement terms, that sequencing only makes sense if the final assembly line is shifting toward the buyer. It suggests that Russia will supply the systems and tooling, while Iran’s own aviation industry, under Russian supervision, completes the airframes on its soil.
Tehran’s own officials have fed the speculation. In January 2025 an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander declared that Iran had “purchased” Su 35s, declining to say how many or when they would arrive. Weeks later, a member of parliament described the arrival of MiG 29s from Russia as a “temporary solution” until Su 35s begin entering service. The implication was unmistakable: the stopgap was already flying.
In a remarkably swift operational pivot, Russia appears to have redeployed front line MiG 29 fighters to Iran as an interim measure, transferring jets that likely came from active units rather than reserve stocks. Reports from Iran placed the aircraft at Shiraz Air Base within days of dispatch. An An 124 heavy transport was tracked flying from Astrakhan to Iran that week, plausible carriage for dismantled MiG 29 airframes or spares. Russian and Iranian sources both framed the transfer as temporary, but the speed underscored a deepening operational partnership.
For Iran, even a handful of MiG 29s represents a lifeline. Its Air Force still relies on half century old F 4s, F 5s, and F 14s, relics of the Shah’s era maintained through ingenuity and cannibalized parts. The promised Su 35s, if they arrive, would leapfrog that obsolescence in one bound, introducing modern radar, long range missiles, and credible survivability against regional adversaries equipped with F 15s and Rafales.
Yet Iran’s modernisation carries a price beyond euros or oil barter. The Su 35’s avionics, maintenance software, and weapons integration are all locked within Russian supply chains. Every future sortie will depend on Moscow’s willingness to release updates, parts, and technical personnel. Iran’s Air Force may gain modern jets, but it will surrender an element of strategic autonomy, swapping one form of isolation for another.
Inside Russia, the deal serves a different purpose. With Western markets closed, defense exports have become both a financial artery and a diplomatic tool. Selling Su 35s to Iran signals that Moscow can still field top tier hardware abroad despite wartime sanctions, and that it retains loyal clients outside the Western orbit. For the Kremlin, Tehran is more than a customer; it is a strategic partner supplying drones, munitions, and legitimacy for a parallel trade network circumventing the dollar system.
Still, the deal’s authenticity remains unverified. No independent forensic team has authenticated the Black Mirror files. Russia’s defense ministry has refused comment. Skeptical analysts, including those writing for Forbes and The Drive, insist that no Su 35s have yet appeared in satellite imagery of Iranian air bases. Without photographic proof, the evidence remains circumstantial, a cluster of aligned leaks, statements, and plausible logistics.
Israel and the Gulf monarchies are recalibrating their radar networks and electronic warfare budgets. Washington’s export control bureaucracy is mapping new sanction targets across Russia’s KRET supply chain. Each component that travels to Iran, a sensor, a circuit board, a training simulator, now risks interdiction.
If the schedule in the leaked tables holds, Iran could begin assembling or receiving Su 35s by late 2026. That would coincide with the U.S. presidential transition and the potential unravelling of existing sanctions regimes, a strategic sweet spot for both Moscow and Tehran. Whether the jets actually fly under Iranian colors, or remain a bargaining chip in a larger energy and arms barter, will determine whether this episode marks the rebirth of Iran’s airpower or another mirage in a long desert of promises.
The real story is not the aircraft themselves but the dependency they cement, a reminder that in the new multipolar arms economy, sovereignty often comes packaged with a maintenance contract.
Sources and Verification:
This report draws on open-source intelligence and leaked documents attributed to the Russian state concern KRET, first published by the hacker collective Black Mirror on Telegram in early October 2025. Additional details were taken from defence trade outlets including Defence Security Asia, Zona Militar, and corroborative reporting in Newsweek and Forbes. None of the leaked materials have been independently authenticated, and neither the Russian nor Iranian governments have confirmed their authenticity. All references to delivery schedules, contract values, or assembly plans should therefore be treated as provisional and subject to verification.
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